Swine flu.indd

29 April 2009
Zealand, the disease hit in 1918, infected over one third of New Zealand’s population and killed an estimated 8,000 people in just four months. With a big proportion of the population staying at home, economic activity was severely disrupted, although this Investment was compounded by the ending of World War I. US industrial
insights
production slumped 18% between March 1918 and March 1919. The sharemarket impact is hard to discern given the volatility By Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief
associated with the ending of WWI, however in the US shares rose Economist for AMP Capital Investors
The SARS outbreak of 2003 is perhaps a more useful guide to predicting the economic and fi nancial market damage a pandemic • Swine fl u deaths in Mexico and the spread of cases around the might cause. After emerging in China around February 2003, SARS world have lead to fears of a global fl u pandemic.
infected about 8000 people (mostly in Asia) in 30 countries over a fi ve month period and had a mortality rate of about 10%. While • Coming at a time when the global economy is already the number infected was not that great, SARS had a big negative weakened, pandemic fears have already caused nervousness in impact on the countries most affected as people stayed home sharemarkets and more weakness is possible. for fear of catching it. While the number of new cases peaked in • While there is reason for concern, the experience with SARS April 2003, GDP in Hong Kong and Singapore (two of the countries and bird fl u highlight that worst case pandemic fears don’t most affected) slumped by over 2% in the June quarter of 2003 as usually come to pass. The world is also better prepared for a retail sales fell, workers stayed home and travel dried up. Growth viral pandemic now. The key for investors is to be alert, but not SARS experience in 2003, HK and Singapore
Real GDP,
Number of new
As if investors didn’t have enough to worry about, concerns about March qtr
of people
SARS cases, RHS
2003=100
another fl u pandemic – swine fl u in this case – are now causing concerns globally following deaths in Mexico and it’s spreading HK GDP (LHS)
to various parts of the world. The World Health Organisation has Singapore GDP (LHS)
declared the outbreak a “public health emergency” and raised its pandemic alert rating to 4 (on a scale that runs to 6). Global sharemarkets have been rattled by concerns about its economic impact with travel related stocks being hard hit so far. While a fl u pandemic - were it to eventuate - would fi rst and foremost be a human tragedy, the economic and fi nancial market impact would Source: Thomson Financial, AMP Capital Investors also be signifi cant. The swine fl u outbreak has come at a time Refl ecting SARS, Asian shares fell in April 2003, even though global when the world is already weakened by the global fi nancial crisis. shares started to move out of a three year bear market from That said, there is a real danger of overreacting to the outbreak March. The April 2003 low in Asian shares coincided with signs the of swine fl u; it could just turn out to be a nasty version of the fl u. number of new cases was peaking, and this was well ahead of the Recent experiences with SARS and bird fl u highlight that worst case pandemic fears don’t always eventuate. This note looks at the risks.
SARS pushed Asian shares lower, but they turned as
the number of cases peaked
Past experience – Spanish fl u, SARS and bird Asian shares, ex Japan
Before looking at the swine fl u outbreak causing concern, it is worth reviewing past pandemics – both real and feared. There Global shares
were three infl uenza pandemics in the last century: 1918-19, 1957 and 1968. The 1957 and 1968 pandemics are estimated to 9% underperformance by
Asian shares at height of
have killed up to 4 million people. However, the 1918 Spanish SARS pandemic in April
fl u pandemic was the most severe. While the mortality rate was low, up to 50 million people died worldwide. In the US, the fi rst case was reported in March 1918 and deaths peaked sometime between September 1918 and March 1919 (with possibly a Source: Thomson Financial, AMP Capital Investors double peak), but cases were still reported as late as 1920. In New More broadly though, we need to see an acceleration in broader • Today many countries are also far better prepared given all the money supply and credit growth. In this regard the evidence is concerns about bird fl u over the last few years. Less developed mixed so far. See the fi rst chart.
countries are of course more vulnerable. Most pandemics have taken six to 18 months to run their course • In addition, the world is mobilising against the threat, so this and usually dwindle as measures are taken to slow their spread (for example, hygiene, quarantining, banning gatherings and preventing travel). SARS ended quicker due to the nature of the virus and rapid action by authorities.
Coming at a time when the world is in its worst recession since
the great depression and investors are still very nervous, concern
In 2005 and early 2006, there was signifi cant concern that a about the swine fl u outbreak turning into a global pandemic
severe strain of bird fl u (resulting in human casualties mainly could drive a setback in sharemarkets. Travel related stocks are
in parts of Asia where people had contact with chickens) would most vulnerable followed by consumer related shares, whereas mutate into a form that was readily transmissible between healthcare stocks (particularly manufacturers of anti-virals) could humans. However, this didn’t really eventuate. Consequently, the economic impact was modest, although it did cause bouts of volatility in sharemarkets in 2005 and early 2006.
A full blown swine fl u pandemic with millions of deaths could also deepen and extend the global recession already underway - global What do we know about swine fl u outbreak? travel would virtually cease, workers would stay at home and the supply of goods and services would be seriously interrupted. If this As it’s early days there isn’t a lot of information on the swine fl u were to occur the bear market in shares would likely resume and virus now causing concern. However, here is a summary of what However, while there is reason for concern and it is easy to dream
• The swine fl u virus causing concern (infl uenza type A, H1N1) up nightmare scenarios, the experience with the SARS outbreak
appears to contain genetic material from human viruses, North of 2003 and the pandemonium over bird fl u with “predictions”
American bird viruses and pig viruses. It may be completely it could kill as many as 150 million people tell us that the worst
new, or it may have been around for a while having become case fears of pandemics usually don’t come to pass. Hopefully
only recently detectible due to new testing and surveillance the same will apply to the swine fl u outbreak and any setback in shares driven by pandemic fears will just provide a buying • As a number of cases have had no direct exposure to pigs, the opportunity. Certainly the lack of deaths outside of Mexico so concern with this virus is that it has the ability to transmit far, signs that anti-virals appear to be effective and the better between humans. This is something that the H5N1 bird fl u virus preparedness of the world for a pandemic after the scares of never really attained (at least not so far). recent years are positive signs in this regard. These considerations • In Mexico it also seems to be hitting young adults (20 to 35 year suggest that while there might be a bit of short term volatility there is unlikely to be a major impact on sharemarkets. That said, given the risks and with many fl u pandemic experts agreeing that • It has apparently killed 150 or so people in Mexico. But so far a new pandemic could occur any time, it will be necessary for there have been no reported deaths outside of Mexico. For investors to keep a close eye on how swine fl u develops. The key example, Health Ministry offi cials confi rmed last night that for investors at this stage is to be alert, but not alarmed.
three of 11 Rangitoto College pupils had contracted the virus after a trip to Mexico, but reports indicate they are recovering. As such, the deaths in Mexico may have something to do with its less able healthcare system. It is also worth noting, that already hundreds of people die from fl u every year.
• More signifi cantly, while there is no vaccine that protects against swine fl u, two anti-viral drugs, Tamifl u and Relenza, have been effective against the new strains according to the US Centers for Disease Control. Wellington offi ce
Auckland offi ce
AMP Capital Investors (New Zealand) Limited
AMP Capital Investors (New Zealand) Limited
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Source: https://www.rabodirect.co.nz/binaries/2009.04.29_Swine_flu_tcm93-134494.pdf